Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-09 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 61.8%

MTL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.34

MTL: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

E. Kallgren

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	26	24	2	92.3%	2.14	1	0.14
MTL	J. Allen	40	37	3	92.5%	3.94	1	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	23	0	1.51
1	MTL	9	0	0.56
2	TOR	15	1	1.29
2	MTL	14	1	1.11
3	TOR	20	0	1.15
3	MTL	10	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.3 - 2.6