Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-04-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 56.7%

WSH: 43.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

WSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	45	39	6	86.7%	4.37	3	-1.63
WSH	I. Samsonov	32	29	3	90.6%	3.58	1	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	1	1.51
1	WSH	12	0	0.78
2	PIT	21	0	1.45
2	WSH	20	0	0.96
3	PIT	13	0	0.62
3	WSH	23	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0