New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

DAL: 48.8%

NJD: 51.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.02

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	20	3	87.0%	2.36	0	-0.64
NJD	Nico Daws	28	27	1	96.4%	2.83	0	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 10% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	NJD
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DAL	18	1.11
1	NJD	9	0.67
2	DAL	20	1.53
2	NJD	7	0.50
3	DAL	7	0.18
3	NJD	17	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1