Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-04-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 63.3%

COL: 36.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.16

COL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

M. Koskinen

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Koskinen	36	34	2	94.4%	4.32	3	2.32
COL	D. Kuemper	53	52	1	98.1%	3.86	1	2.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • EDM at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.84
1	COL	22	2	1.71
2	EDM	19	1	1.05
2	COL	6	0	0.43
3	EDM	15	0	0.68
3	COL	24	0	1.21
4	EDM	11	0	1.10
4	COL	0	0	0.00
5	EDM	3	0	0.19
5	COL	2	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0