Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-10 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 57.0%

BUF: 43.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

BUF: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

B. Elliott

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	28	28	0	100.0%	2.86	0	2.86
BUF	C. Anderson	28	23	5	82.1%	3.18	1	-1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs BUF: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	1.04
1	BUF	16	0	0.93
2	TBL	12	0	0.82
2	BUF	14	0	1.15
3	TBL	14	1	1.31
3	BUF	11	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0