Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-02-20 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 54.2%

VGK: 45.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.22

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

SJS

J. Reimer

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	35	31	4	88.6%	3.52	1	-0.48
VGK	L. Thompson	36	35	1	97.2%	2.83	1	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • SJS at home vs VGK: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	1	0.74
1	VGK	20	0	1.23
2	SJS	18	0	1.08
2	VGK	15	0	0.92
3	SJS	17	0	1.01
3	VGK	14	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0