Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 60.1%

WPG: 39.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.36

WPG: 3.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 56%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	31	4	88.6%	2.74	1	-1.26
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	23	2	92.0%	2.46	0	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.46
1	WPG	12	0	0.50
2	MTL	16	0	1.14
2	WPG	19	0	1.21
3	MTL	11	0	0.87
3	WPG	12	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.7