Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 9 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

WSH: 58.2%

PHI: 41.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.25

PHI: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 54%

WSH

I. Samsonov

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	21	19	2	90.5%	1.79	2	-0.21
PHI	C. Hart	37	28	9	75.7%	3.61	2	-5.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	1.00
1	PHI	14	1	0.91
2	WSH	17	1	1.51
2	PHI	8	0	0.37
3	WSH	17	1	1.10
3	PHI	7	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 9 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7