Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DAL: 55.9%

TBL: 44.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

TBL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	25	25	0	100.0%	3.28	2	3.28
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	28	1	96.6%	3.73	3	2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	0	0.70
1	TBL	7	1	0.67
2	DAL	19	0	1.25
2	TBL	12	0	1.06
3	DAL	14	3	1.78
3	TBL	16	1	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9