Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-04-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 64.7%

OTT: 35.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.22

OTT: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

L. Ullmark

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	32	29	3	90.6%	3.55	1	0.55
OTT	Anton Forsberg	42	40	2	95.2%	2.98	1	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BOS at home vs OTT: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	1	1.51
1	OTT	12	0	0.60
2	BOS	13	0	0.48
2	OTT	17	1	1.85
3	BOS	22	0	0.99
3	OTT	12	0	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 4.2 - 2.6