Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 59.7%

WSH: 40.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.49

WSH: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

J. Campbell

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	25	22	3	88.0%	2.11	1	-0.89
WSH	I. Samsonov	32	25	7	78.1%	4.02	1	-2.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	0	1.61
1	WSH	6	0	0.20
2	TOR	19	1	1.78
2	WSH	13	0	0.90
3	TOR	10	0	0.63
3	WSH	15	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0