Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-04-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 54.3%

VGK: 45.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.33

VGK: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	19	6	76.0%	2.93	1	-3.07
VGK	L. Thompson	36	35	1	97.2%	3.73	4	2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CGY at home vs VGK: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	0.92
1	VGK	13	0	1.35
2	CGY	17	1	1.42
2	VGK	12	1	1.13
3	CGY	18	3	1.39
3	VGK	5	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9