New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 61.2%

NYI: 38.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.08

NYI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

C. Price

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	C. Price	20	17	3	85.0%	2.19	2	-0.81
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	44	44	0	100.0%	3.02	0	3.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs NYI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	NYI
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.78
1	NYI	10	0	0.55
2	MTL	21	0	1.03
2	NYI	7	0	0.35
3	MTL	22	0	1.22
3	NYI	9	2	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2