Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BOS: 53.2%

PIT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

PIT: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	23	1	95.8%	1.54	0	0.54
PIT	C. DeSmith	29	27	2	93.1%	1.92	1	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BOS at home vs PIT: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	1	0.71
1	PIT	14	0	0.68
2	BOS	6	0	0.30
2	PIT	10	0	0.46
3	BOS	17	0	0.91
3	PIT	11	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0