Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BUF: 57.7%

PHI: 42.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.54

PHI: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

C. Anderson

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	21	18	3	85.7%	1.85	1	-1.15
PHI	M. Jones	29	25	4	86.2%	2.38	1	-1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.53
1	PHI	8	1	0.60
2	BUF	23	1	1.51
2	PHI	5	0	0.22
3	BUF	5	0	0.35
3	PHI	16	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9