Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

OTT: 47.2%

TOR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.91

TOR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	41	36	5	87.8%	4.11	3	-0.89
TOR	E. Kallgren	29	25	4	86.2%	2.32	1	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.55
1	TOR	18	2	1.54
2	OTT	20	1	1.00
2	TOR	13	1	0.99
3	OTT	10	0	0.47
3	TOR	20	0	1.10
4	OTT	2	0	0.30
4	TOR	7	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0