San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

DAL: 60.0%

SJS: 40.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.90

SJS: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 57%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	23	1	95.8%	1.99	0	0.99
SJS	K. Kahkonen	26	24	2	92.3%	3.23	2	1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs SJS: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.54
1	SJS	11	0	0.37
2	DAL	18	2	2.02
2	SJS	15	0	1.07
3	DAL	11	0	0.67
3	SJS	11	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0