Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-04-17 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.1%

BUF: 44.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.07

BUF: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	40	35	5	87.5%	4.49	3	-0.51
BUF	D. Tokarski	35	32	3	91.4%	4.23	5	1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	0.88
1	BUF	15	0	0.97
2	PHI	9	1	1.66
2	BUF	19	1	1.20
3	PHI	17	4	1.70
3	BUF	20	2	2.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2