Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TOR: 69.5%

PHI: 30.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.79

PHI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

J. Campbell

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	39	37	2	94.9%	2.27	1	0.27
PHI	M. Jones	29	24	5	82.8%	3.30	1	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	0.88
1	PHI	16	1	0.70
2	TOR	15	0	0.98
2	PHI	16	0	0.85
3	TOR	10	1	1.44
3	PHI	15	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8