Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 66.1%

DET: 33.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

DET: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	27	4	87.1%	3.48	1	-0.52
DET	T. Greiss	41	38	3	92.7%	5.41	3	2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • TBL at home vs DET: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	23	1	2.23
1	DET	7	0	0.11
2	TBL	18	2	1.97
2	DET	23	1	2.33
3	TBL	17	0	1.21
3	DET	15	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8