Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-02-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 53.9%

OTT: 46.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

OTT: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 55%

BUF

C. Anderson

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	28	25	3	89.3%	3.24	2	0.24
OTT	Anton Forsberg	24	23	1	95.8%	1.94	1	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs OTT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	0.90
1	OTT	17	0	0.63
2	BUF	12	0	0.96
2	OTT	11	0	0.88
3	BUF	5	0	0.08
3	OTT	14	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8