Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-21 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 48.8%

TOR: 51.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

TOR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	36	1	97.3%	3.25	0	2.25
TOR	E. Kallgren	36	28	8	77.8%	4.44	0	-3.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	12	1.09
1	TOR	16	0.67
2	TBL	26	1.78
2	TOR	14	1.08
3	TBL	17	1.57
3	TOR	14	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0