New York Rangers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-04-21 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 53.3%

NYR: 46.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.89

NYR: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

NYR

A. Georgiev

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	23	17	6	73.9%	1.93	0	-4.07
NYR	A. Georgiev	29	26	3	89.7%	3.31	1	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs NYR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.51
1	NYR	11	0	0.83
2	NYI	13	0	0.84
2	NYR	13	0	0.75
3	NYI	16	1	1.97
3	NYR	5	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 6 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.9 - 2.6