Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2022-04-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Dallas Stars
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 69.4%
DAL: 30.6%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.54
DAL: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
J. Markstrom
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA
| Stat | CGY | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | J. Markstrom | 23 | 21 | 2 | 91.3% | 2.14 | 0 | 0.14 |
| DAL | Jake Oettinger | 37 | 33 | 4 | 89.2% | 3.91 | 4 | -0.09 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | DAL 4 - 3 CGY | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-03-03 | CGY 1 - 6 DAL | DAL | CGY |
| 2025-11-22 | CGY 3 - 2 DAL | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-27 | CGY 2 - 5 DAL | DAL | CGY |
| 2025-03-06 | DAL 3 - 2 CGY | DAL | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CGY | 14 | 1 | 0.76 |
| 1 | DAL | 13 | 0 | 0.69 |
| 2 | CGY | 20 | 1 | 1.31 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 0 | 0.97 |
| 3 | CGY | 19 | 2 | 1.83 |
| 3 | DAL | 9 | 0 | 0.48 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 69.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7
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