Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 47.1%

MTL: 52.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.17

MTL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

MTL

C. Price

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	48	44	4	91.7%	3.89	3	-0.11
MTL	C. Price	26	20	6	76.9%	3.52	3	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • OTT at home vs MTL: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	1	0.78
1	MTL	16	1	1.06
2	OTT	23	1	1.87
2	MTL	18	1	1.10
3	OTT	6	1	0.87
3	MTL	19	1	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1