Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-04-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DET: 32.3%

PIT: 67.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.50

PIT: 3.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

T. Greiss

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	T. Greiss	38	31	7	81.6%	4.33	1	-2.67
PIT	C. DeSmith	25	23	2	92.0%	1.55	0	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.46
1	PIT	14	0	1.13
2	DET	16	0	0.95
2	PIT	19	1	2.05
3	DET	4	0	0.14
3	PIT	17	0	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.5 - 3.7