Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Nashville Predators

Win Probability

TBL: 50.9%

NSH: 49.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.05

NSH: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

B. Elliott

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	21	19	2	90.5%	2.51	1	0.51
NSH	Juuse Saros	39	33	6	84.6%	3.79	3	-2.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs NSH: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2023-12-07	NSH 5 - 1 TBL	NSH	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.15
1	NSH	14	0	1.21
2	TBL	15	1	0.99
2	NSH	13	1	0.88
3	TBL	21	2	1.65
3	NSH	7	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2