Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-04-24 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 62.8%

TBL: 37.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.73

TBL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	33	25	8	75.8%	4.02	3	-3.98
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	35	4	89.7%	3.54	0	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • FLA at home vs TBL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	0.96
1	TBL	15	0	1.09
2	FLA	17	0	0.89
2	TBL	14	1	1.48
3	FLA	25	0	1.69
3	TBL	17	2	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9