Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-02-23 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.5%

BUF: 51.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	32	0	100.0%	2.24	1	2.24
BUF	C. Anderson	29	25	4	86.2%	3.09	4	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs BUF: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	0	0.57
1	BUF	6	0	0.13
2	MTL	10	3	1.44
2	BUF	16	1	0.86
3	MTL	15	1	1.08
3	BUF	17	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0