New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 48.9%

NJD: 51.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.07

NJD: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	41	37	4	90.2%	3.32	2	-0.68
NJD	M. Blackwood	34	29	5	85.3%	3.79	1	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NJD: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.80
1	NJD	15	0	0.97
2	OTT	13	1	1.36
2	NJD	14	1	1.11
3	OTT	14	0	1.13
3	NJD	18	1	1.24
4	OTT	4	0	0.50
4	NJD	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1