Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-02-26 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 10 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 49.4%

TOR: 50.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.99

TOR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	39	29	10	74.4%	3.46	4	-6.54
TOR	J. Campbell	33	26	7	78.8%	1.83	1	-5.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • DET at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	10	1	0.61
1	TOR	19	1	1.59
2	DET	14	0	0.58
2	TOR	14	0	0.59
3	DET	19	0	0.63
3	TOR	12	3	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 17.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 10 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1