St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2022-04-26 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 59.4%
STL: 40.6%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.47
STL: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
D. Kuemper
STL
Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA
| Stat | COL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | D. Kuemper | 32 | 29 | 3 | 90.6% | 2.34 | 0 | -0.66 |
| STL | Jordan Binnington | 34 | 29 | 5 | 85.3% | 5.09 | 5 | 0.09 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | STL 1 - 3 COL | COL | COL |
| 2026-04-05 | COL 2 - 3 STL | STL | COL |
| 2025-12-31 | COL 6 - 1 STL | COL | COL |
| 2025-04-05 | STL 5 - 4 COL | STL | COL |
| 2025-03-29 | COL 1 - 2 STL | STL | COL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL | 16 | 0 | 0.92 |
| 1 | STL | 13 | 0 | 0.55 |
| 2 | COL | 23 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2 | STL | 7 | 0 | 0.64 |
| 3 | COL | 17 | 4 | 3.06 |
| 3 | STL | 20 | 0 | 1.15 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.5 - 2.9
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.