Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-04-28 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 59.6%

BUF: 40.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.74

BUF: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

BOS

L. Ullmark

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	37	37	0	100.0%	2.52	1	2.52
BUF	D. Tokarski	32	27	5	84.4%	3.42	1	-1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs BUF: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	7	1	0.96
1	BUF	17	0	1.07
2	BOS	17	0	1.35
2	BUF	16	0	0.69
3	BOS	15	0	1.11
3	BUF	12	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 3.2