Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 56.8%

BOS: 43.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.99

BOS: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

E. Kallgren

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	26	24	2	92.3%	2.06	0	0.06
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	27	22	5	81.5%	2.67	1	-2.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TOR at home vs BOS: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.90
1	BOS	12	0	0.44
2	TOR	13	0	0.67
2	BOS	13	0	0.85
3	TOR	8	1	1.10
3	BOS	13	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3