Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 10 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 41.5%

FLA: 58.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.74

FLA: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

C. Price

FLA

J. Johansson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	C. Price	39	37	2	94.9%	2.96	0	0.96
FLA	J. Johansson	37	27	10	73.0%	3.76	2	-6.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • MTL at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.99
1	FLA	16	0	0.99
2	MTL	19	1	1.82
2	FLA	18	0	0.85
3	MTL	12	1	0.95
3	FLA	17	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 10 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2