Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-29 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

NYR: 56.2%

WSH: 43.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.21

WSH: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

A. Georgiev

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	A. Georgiev	36	34	2	94.4%	2.75	0	0.75
WSH	I. Samsonov	33	30	3	90.9%	2.64	1	-0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYR at home vs WSH: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.70
1	WSH	15	0	0.81
2	NYR	15	0	0.63
2	WSH	18	0	0.76
3	NYR	17	1	1.30
3	WSH	16	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1