Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-04-29 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 58.4%

OTT: 41.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.24

OTT: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

M. Jones

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	36	32	4	88.9%	4.26	2	0.26
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	32	2	94.1%	3.45	1	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs OTT: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	0.83
1	OTT	14	0	1.12
2	PHI	8	0	0.58
2	OTT	15	0	1.11
3	PHI	22	1	2.05
3	OTT	15	2	2.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0