Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-04-29 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

WPG: 63.5%

CGY: 36.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.33

CGY: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	32	1	97.0%	2.38	1	1.38
CGY	Dan Vladar	43	40	3	93.0%	5.12	5	2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs CGY: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	21	1	1.58
1	CGY	22	1	1.51
2	WPG	23	3	2.10
2	CGY	14	0	0.68
3	WPG	16	1	1.45
3	CGY	9	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0