Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-05-05 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

FLA: 62.6%

WSH: 37.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.96

WSH: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 55%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	26	1	96.3%	2.44	3	1.44
WSH	V. Vanecek	36	31	5	86.1%	3.24	1	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • FLA at home vs WSH: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	8	0	0.48
1	WSH	15	1	1.13
2	FLA	16	1	1.35
2	WSH	16	2	1.23
3	FLA	23	0	1.42
3	WSH	6	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9