Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-05-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 40.6%

FLA: 59.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.04

FLA: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	30	29	1	96.7%	2.90	1	1.90
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	25	6	80.6%	3.08	1	-2.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.98
1	FLA	14	0	0.55
2	WSH	8	0	0.53
2	FLA	24	0	1.19
3	WSH	16	1	1.57
3	FLA	13	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4