Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-05-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Florida Panthers (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 46.4%

FLA: 53.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.88

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

WSH

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	32	29	3	90.6%	2.90	1	-0.10
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	16	14	2	87.5%	2.04	1	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.67
1	FLA	16	0	0.81
2	WSH	5	0	0.33
2	FLA	19	0	1.16
3	WSH	9	1	1.02
3	FLA	12	1	0.80
4	WSH	1	0	0.01
4	FLA	2	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1