Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-05-11 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

FLA: 62.6%

WSH: 37.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.56

WSH: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	33	30	3	90.9%	3.72	4	0.72
WSH	I. Samsonov	38	33	5	86.8%	5.22	6	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • FLA at home vs WSH: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	19	1	1.65
1	WSH	13	1	1.02
2	FLA	20	2	1.83
2	WSH	15	1	1.03
3	FLA	13	3	1.75
3	WSH	17	2	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1