Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-05-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Florida Panthers (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 37.0%

FLA: 63.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.83

FLA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

WSH

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	31	27	4	87.1%	2.38	2	-1.62
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	37	34	3	91.9%	2.90	2	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	0.83
1	FLA	11	0	0.40
2	WSH	14	1	0.93
2	FLA	18	1	1.16
3	WSH	17	1	1.05
3	FLA	9	1	0.63
4	WSH	2	0	0.10
4	FLA	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1