Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-05-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 61.1%

TBL: 38.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.07

TBL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

J. Campbell

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	24	24	0	100.0%	2.21	0	2.21
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	27	5	84.4%	4.36	2	-0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	1.14
1	TBL	6	0	0.50
2	TOR	14	1	1.33
2	TBL	16	0	1.22
3	TOR	18	1	1.89
3	TBL	14	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9