Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-05-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.5%

TOR: 49.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.09

TOR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	36	31	5	86.1%	5.90	4	0.90
TOR	J. Campbell	34	32	2	94.1%	3.08	0	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.89
1	TOR	18	0	1.23
2	TBL	13	0	1.09
2	TOR	18	1	1.49
3	TBL	19	0	1.11
3	TOR	10	3	3.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1