Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-05-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

TBL: 50.6%

TOR: 49.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.38

TOR: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	88.0%	2.32	1	-0.68
TOR	J. Campbell	28	21	7	75.0%	4.90	4	-2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	1.02
1	TOR	14	1	1.40
2	TBL	15	2	1.85
2	TOR	5	0	0.26
3	TBL	13	2	2.02
3	TOR	14	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9