Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-05-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

Win Probability

NYR: 42.6%

PIT: 57.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.92

PIT: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	83	79	4	95.2%	7.22	3	3.22
PIT	C. DeSmith	68	65	3	95.6%	4.16	2	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.84
1	PIT	15	1	1.13
2	NYR	8	0	0.63
2	PIT	29	2	2.53
3	NYR	12	0	0.48
3	PIT	17	0	0.84
4	NYR	15	1	1.04
4	PIT	17	0	0.58
5	NYR	23	1	1.04
5	PIT	24	0	1.81
6	NYR	4	0	0.14
6	PIT	10	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3