Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-05-11 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 43.7%

PIT: 56.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

PIT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

L. Domingue

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.55	2	0.55
PIT	L. Domingue	34	29	5	85.3%	3.14	1	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	1	0.78
1	PIT	13	0	1.02
2	NYR	17	0	1.12
2	PIT	10	2	1.10
3	NYR	15	0	1.24
3	PIT	22	0	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1