New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-05-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 70.8%

NYR: 29.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.03

NYR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

L. Domingue

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	L. Domingue	38	33	5	86.8%	3.53	2	-1.47
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	31	3	91.2%	2.24	0	-0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	0	0.75
1	NYR	17	0	0.46
2	PIT	15	0	1.01
2	NYR	23	1	1.56
3	PIT	14	0	0.48
3	NYR	9	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8