Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-05-15 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 43.8%

PIT: 56.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.27

PIT: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	42	39	3	92.9%	3.21	0	0.21
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	26	4	86.7%	2.03	0	-1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	13	0.48
1	PIT	15	1.44
2	NYR	19	0.92
2	PIT	20	1.13
3	NYR	11	0.45
3	PIT	14	0.60
4	NYR	4	0.18
4	PIT	2	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3